CHERVON-泉峰控股：2024年1-9月净利润同比增速超300%，全年收入有望超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing strong performance and growth potential [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of $100 million for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of over 335% [5] - Full-year revenue for 2024 is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected growth rate of over 20% [5] - The company's EGO brand has shown strong performance, contributing significantly to profit growth [5] - Online channel revenue is growing rapidly, with Amazon driving significant growth, and is expected to reach double-digit revenue share in 2024 [5] - The company is expanding its distributor network in North America and adjusting distribution policies in Europe, which is expected to improve gross margins [5] - Q3 2024 gross margin is expected to improve year-on-year due to the strong performance of the high-margin EGO brand, production scale recovery, and low raw material costs [5] - Downstream retailer inventories have returned to healthy levels, supporting growth in shipments [5] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be$ 1.655 billion, $1.922 billion, and$ 2.198 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.4%, 16.1%, and 14.4% [5] - Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be $131 million,$ 150 million, and $178 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.1% and 18.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 32.7% in 2024, compared to 28.1% in 2023 [4][5] - Adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 7.9%, 7.8%, and 8.1% for 2024-2026, respectively [4][5] - ROE is expected to increase to 12.3%, 12.7%, and 13.4% for 2024-2026, respectively [4][5] Market Data - The company's closing price on October 17, 2024, was HKD 21.3, with a total market capitalization of HKD 10.9 billion [3] - Total assets were$ 1.94 billion, with net assets attributable to the parent company at $982 million [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be$ 0.28, $0.32, and$ 0.38, respectively [4][5] Operational Highlights - The company is focusing on optimizing operational efficiency and controlling management expenses while steadily investing in marketing and R&D [5] - The company's OPE and power tools are benefiting from downstream retailers' restocking cycles, which are expected to align with POS growth rates in Q4 2024 [5] - The EGO brand is expected to outperform industry averages despite weak downstream demand [5]