New Journey(002219) 湘财证券·2024-10-20 08:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Chongqing Xinlicheng Medical Management Co Ltd for RMB 320 million, which is expected to expand its operations [2] - Chongqing Xinlicheng has shown steady revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 10% and is projected to become a regional medical group with a scale of 8-10 billion yuan in the next three years [3] - The acquisition will add 1,000 beds to the company, and future expansions are planned, including new hospital buildings and tumor centers [4] - The parent company, Xinlicheng Health Group, has completed profit-oriented reforms for 70% of its hospitals and plans to inject high-quality medical assets into the company within five years [5] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is projected to be RMB 3,993 million, RMB 4,400 million, and RMB 4,835 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.2%, 10.2%, and 9.9% [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 128.2 million, RMB 184.1 million, and RMB 237.7 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [9] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 30.4%-30.6% over the next three years [9] - ROE is expected to improve from 5.5% in 2024 to 9.0% in 2026 [9] Operational Highlights - Chongqing Xinlicheng operates over 1,000 beds and has established a comprehensive development model integrating elderly hospitals, elderly care centers, and home-based care services [3] - The company is actively expanding its bed capacity, with new hospital buildings and tumor centers under construction, expected to add significant bed capacity by 2026 [4] - The parent company manages nearly 30 hospitals and 200 grassroots medical institutions across 20 provinces, with a total bed capacity exceeding 20,000 [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 67.85 in 2024 to 36.60 in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [9] - EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 18.11 in 2024 to 12.17 in 2026, reflecting better operational efficiency [9] - The company's PB ratio is forecasted to decrease from 3.74 in 2024 to 3.28 in 2026, suggesting a more favorable valuation [9]