行业研究——周报：原油周报：地缘风险溢价褪去，国际油价明显回落

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that international oil prices have significantly declined due to the easing of geopolitical risk premiums, with Brent and WTI prices at $73.06 and $68.69 per barrel respectively as of October 18, 2024 [1][7]. - Concerns over demand have been exacerbated by a continuous decline in China's crude oil imports for five consecutive months, alongside OPEC and IEA's downward revisions of global demand growth forecasts [1][7]. - The report emphasizes that the current oil price cycle is fundamentally supply-driven, with some oil-producing countries shifting from market share competition to price support strategies due to production capacity constraints [1][8]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of October 18, 2024, Brent crude futures settled at $73.06 per barrel, down $5.98 (-7.57%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $68.69 per barrel, down $6.87 (-9.09%) [1][13]. Oil Price Outlook - The report suggests that the long-term production capacity of U.S. shale oil is limited due to various factors, including rising costs and resource depletion [8]. - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its ability to control prices through production adjustments, with a commitment to stabilize the oil market [8]. - The report forecasts that global oil demand will continue to grow from 2024 to 2026, while supply capabilities may struggle to meet this demand, leading to sustained high oil prices in the medium to long term [8]. Oil and Petrochemical Sector Performance - As of October 18, 2024, the oil and petrochemical sector has seen a decline of 2.00%, while the broader market (CSI 300) increased by 0.98% [9]. - The refining and trading sector decreased by 1.14%, and the oil service engineering sector fell by 3.32% [9]. Upstream Sector Company Performance - As of October 18, 2024, notable performers in the upstream sector included Xinjin Power (+3.61%) and ST Xinchao (+1.08%), while most others experienced declines [11]. Crude Oil Supply and Demand - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.50 million barrels per day as of October 11, 2024, with an increase of 100,000 barrels per day from the previous week [1]. - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 15.755 million barrels per day, reflecting an increase of 165,000 barrels per day [1]. Crude Oil Inventory - As of October 11, 2024, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 804 million barrels, a decrease of 1.239 million barrels (-0.15%) from the previous week [1].