医药生物：科技线：创新药国谈在即，重磅国产新药有望受益放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that significant domestic innovative drugs are expected to benefit from the upcoming national negotiations, with a focus on accelerating volume growth after entering the medical insurance directory [2][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming national medical insurance negotiations, which are expected to conclude in November 2024, potentially leading to increased policy support for innovative drugs [17][15]. - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector is entering a new phase characterized by innovation, recovery, and supportive policies, with a focus on companies that can leverage these trends for growth [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Mid-term Investment Strategy and Recommended Focus - The report suggests gradually increasing allocations to the pharmaceutical sector, anticipating excess returns post semi-annual reports [11]. - Key policies for 2024 include the comprehensive promotion of DRG/DIP, adjustments to essential drug lists, and enhanced efficiency assessments for state-owned enterprises [11]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: adjusting existing stock (aging population and import substitution), seeking new growth (international expansion and major products), and capturing variables (state-owned enterprise reform) [11]. 2. Upcoming National Negotiations: Heavyweight Domestic Innovative Drugs Expected to Accelerate Volume Growth - The report outlines that the national medical insurance directory adjustment process began on July 1, 2024, with negotiations expected to conclude in November [15]. - It notes that 244 drugs outside the directory and 196 drugs within the directory have passed preliminary reviews, indicating an increase in the number of drugs submitted compared to 2023 [15]. - The report highlights specific companies like Kangfang Biotech and Yunding New Medicine, which are expected to benefit significantly from the negotiations [18][23]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Hotspot Tracking (October 14-18, 2024) - The report states that the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 0.9% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.1 percentage points [32]. - It mentions that the pharmaceutical sector has seen a decline of 10.3% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 24.7 percentage points [32]. - The report identifies top-performing stocks for the week, including Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (+60.97%) and Changshan Pharmaceutical (+49.75%) [2]. 4. Recommended Focus for October - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Kangfang Biotech, and Yunding New Medicine, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [3][11].