宏观利率图表201：政策延续加力，现实经济正向波动

Domestic Economic Analysis - The macro policy aims to boost economic performance in Q4, with a target of 1 million new housing units for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, and an increase in credit scale to 4 trillion CNY for "whitelist" projects[2] - In September, new social financing reached 3.76 trillion CNY, with new loans at 1.59 trillion CNY, M2 growth at 6.8% (+0.5 percentage points), and M1 declining by 7.4% (-0.1 percentage points)[2] - September's retail sales grew by 3.2% year-on-year (+1.1 percentage points), while fixed asset investment increased by 3.4% year-on-year[2] International Economic Trends - U.S. interest rate cut expectations have cooled, with markets betting on one more cut this year and a halt in early next year; the European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points for the third time[2] - The U.S. manufacturing index from the New York Fed fell to -11.9, the lowest in five months, while retail sales increased by 0.4% month-on-month in September, exceeding expectations[2] - Japan increased its holdings of U.S. Treasuries in August, marking the first increase in five months, indicating a shift in risk factors[2] Market Strategy - Global volatility is expected to rise in the short term, with a strategy to maintain a wait-and-see approach; domestically, a strategic steepening of the yield curve is recommended[3] Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, debt risks in Europe and the U.S., and the appreciation of the Japanese yen[3]