宏观大类周报：国内市场情绪有望持续改善

Market Sentiment - Domestic market sentiment is expected to continue improving due to recent policy shifts, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates[2] - The People's Bank of China indicated a potential further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25-0.5 percentage points by the end of the year[2] Economic Indicators - As of September 2024, the broad money supply (M2) reached 309.48 trillion yuan, growing by 6.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's total goods trade reached 32.33 trillion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year, with exports at 18.62 trillion yuan (6.2% growth) and imports at 13.71 trillion yuan (4.1% growth)[6] Commodity Market Insights - Gold is expected to perform well in the current market environment, with strong short-term certainty[3] - The energy sector is influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly regarding Iran's oil facilities and the Strait of Hormuz, while the medium-term outlook for crude oil remains bearish due to anticipated oversupply[2] Risks - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the energy sector, pose an upward risk to prices[4] - Global economic downturns and unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve could negatively impact risk assets[4]