煤炭周报：冬储补库在即，煤价反弹可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a rebound in coal prices due to upcoming winter storage replenishment, with a short-term price forecast indicating stability around 850 RMB/ton and a medium-term expectation of prices rising above 1000 RMB/ton by 2025 [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - Price Overview: The price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port decreased to 840 RMB/ton, down 1.18% week-on-week. The main coking coal price at Jingtang port fell to 1910 RMB/ton, down 4.98% [10][15] - Supply and Demand Analysis: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port increased by 7.85% to 42.6 thousand tons, while port throughput rose by 57.81% to 57.6 thousand tons [26] - Inventory Analysis: Total coal inventory at major ports increased by 2.58% to 6642.9 million tons, with Qinhuangdao's inventory rising by 5.84% to 544 million tons [32][30] 2. Market Review - The coal sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.91% compared to a 1.4% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [50] - The report highlights that the thermal coal price is expected to find strong support at 850 RMB/ton, with the overall market sentiment improving as EPS concerns are alleviated [3] 3. Key Events of the Week - The report notes significant increases in coal imports, with a total of 38.9 million tons imported in the first three quarters of 2024, marking an 11.9% year-on-year increase [51] - The report also mentions that major coal producers are enhancing their supply capabilities and transportation efficiency to meet market demands [51]