策略周观点：证券领涨期的风格大多不是牛市最强风格

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that during the bull market from 2005 to 2007, the securities sector exhibited strong excess returns throughout, but in subsequent bull markets, excess returns were mainly observed during the early transition from bear to bull and mid-bull phases, lasting about two months [6][7]. - It is noted that the style of securities during rapid growth phases does not necessarily represent the strongest sectors in a bull market. For instance, during the bull market from 2013 to 2015, the strongest sector was TMT, yet during the securities leading phases in late 2012 and late 2014, TMT's performance was relatively weak [6][7]. - Historical data indicates that the securities sector often experiences significant excess returns at the beginning of new bull markets, particularly when there are favorable changes in industry policies, as seen in 2005 and 2012 [6][7]. Strategy Insights - The report outlines that the leading phase of securities may signal the start of a bull market, but the prevailing style during this phase is often not the strongest. Historical examples include 2005, 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2019, where the securities sector showed notable excess returns [6][7]. - The report highlights that from 2013 to 2015, during the securities leading phase, TMT underperformed, suggesting that the rapid improvement in macro expectations and liquidity did not translate into immediate consensus for TMT investments [6][10]. - For the period from 2019 to 2021, the strongest sectors were semiconductors and new energy, with excess returns primarily occurring during slower index growth phases, indicating a trend of volatility rather than rapid increases [6][10]. Market Changes - The report notes that major A-share indices experienced increases, with the ChiNext 50 rising by 4.91% and the ChiNext Index by 4.49%. Most first-level industries also saw gains, particularly in computer and electronic sectors [14][15]. - Global stock markets showed a general upward trend, with significant increases in indices such as Germany's DAX and the Shanghai Composite Index [14]. - The report indicates a net inflow of 229.14 billion yuan into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, reflecting positive market sentiment [14].