SD-GOLD(600547) 摩根大通·2024-10-20 16:58Investment Rating - The report assigns a price target of HK16.88 as of October 14, 2024 [4]. Core Insights - Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd has guided for a 9M24 net profit range of Rmb1.85-2.25 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 38-67%. The reported net profit for 1H24 was Rmb1.38 billion, suggesting a 3Q24 net profit range of Rmb467-867 million, compared to Rmb684 million in 2Q24. The company needs to achieve the upper end of this guidance to meet market expectations [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The fiscal year ending for Shandong Gold is December 2023, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of Rmb0.52 for FY23, increasing to Rmb0.86 in FY24e and Rmb1.25 in FY25e [4]. - Revenue projections are Rmb59.275 billion for FY23, Rmb63.878 billion for FY24e, and Rmb71.614 billion for FY25e [4]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from Rmb8.414 billion in FY23 to Rmb12.058 billion in FY24e and Rmb15.450 billion in FY25e [4]. - The company’s market capitalization is currently Rmb114.234 million, with an enterprise value of Rmb161.343 million [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 25.9 for FY23, decreasing to 17.8 for FY24e and further to 12.3 for FY25e [4]. - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 16.8 in FY23 to 12.8 in FY24e and 9.5 in FY25e [4].