4 有色金属行业2025年中期投资策略 中长期看好金铜铝，重视战略金属 西南证券研究院 金属研究团队 2025年7月 核心观点 1 回顾2025H1：国内方面：经济数据筑底迹象明显，CPI、PPI均处在偏底部位置，地产新开工和竣工增速环比 逐步好转，新旧动能转换，低端制造及地产的拖累逐步见底，新经济的动能逐渐显现。海外方面：美联储降 息预期反复，叠加贸易战影响，全球经济格局和贸易流面临重塑，逆全球化对经济的影响愈发明显。资源板 块：2025年H1，黄金板块表现亮眼，铜受贸易战带来的库存移动和地区升贴水变化，表现强势。铝价维持高 位，成本塌陷带来利润扩张。加工板块：25H1贸易战带来的抢转口效应，加工板块业绩普遍预期较好，提前 出口带来的支撑仍在，单位加工利润整体维持在偏低位置，等待进一步的驱动。 2 展望2025年H2：我们建议把握四条主线：①分母端扩张：金银：黄金中长期看多方向较一致，主要把握交易 节奏，主要关注下半年联储降息预期和贸易战边际变化，看多黄金和黄金股。金银比价较高，带来白银上涨 动能较大，白银标的也应重点关注。②分子端改善：铝铜锡： 25年H1氧化铝下跌带来电解铝单位盈利明显 改善，下半年吨铝 ...

汇丰控股：将山东黄金(01787.HK)H股的目标价定为31.00港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices has led to significant profit increases for gold mining companies, with all eight listed companies reporting over 50% year-on-year profit growth in the first half of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Gold Mining Companies - Eight gold mining companies have disclosed their performance forecasts, with net profits collectively expected to reach between 31.76 billion to 32.81 billion yuan, all showing a year-on-year increase [2]. - Major companies like Zijin Mining are expected to report a net profit of 23.2 billion yuan, a 54% increase compared to the previous year, surpassing their total profit for 2023 in just the first half [2][3]. - China National Gold and Shandong Gold are also expected to report substantial profit increases, with Shandong Gold's net profit forecasted to rise by 84.3% to 120.5% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Fluctuations - Gold prices have reached new highs, with London gold peaking at 3,500 USD per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 26% [2]. - Despite strong earnings, gold mining stocks have shown signs of weakness in the secondary market, with several stocks experiencing declines in the past month [9]. - The correlation between gold prices and mining stock prices remains strong in the short term, but long-term performance will depend on resource reserves, cost control, and acquisition capabilities [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry anticipates continued production increases among gold mining companies, driven by high gold prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that while gold and gold stocks have potential for further upward movement, external factors such as U.S. tariff uncertainties and rising deficits may impact future price dynamics [10].

今日（7月17日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）早盘在水面附近震荡，午后震荡攀 升，场内价格收涨0.66%，此前日线3连阴后，转为收阳，有色龙头ETF（159876）获资金实时净申购60 万份！事实上，该ETF近2日连续获资金净流入，合计金额253万元。 拉长时间来看，有色龙头ETF（159876）自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨20.84%，大幅跑赢沪指 （13.57%）、沪深300（12.40%）等宽基指数。 截至7月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）覆盖的60只有色金属行业龙头上市公司中，已有27家披露2025 年中报业绩预告，其中22家预告盈利，占比超八成；22家预告净利润同比正增长，10家预告净利润预计 翻倍增长，展现有色金属板块龙头公司经营韧性。其中，北方稀土预计上半年归母净利润同比预增 1882%-2014%，暂居榜首！ 业内人士指出，有色金属行业基本面改善（业绩预喜）、宏观政策红利（稀土战略资源）、地缘扰动 （黄金避险需求）、新兴需求爆发（新能源车、军工、机器人）等多重因素共振，当前板块或处于新一 消息面上，有"锂矿双雄"之称的天齐锂业和赣锋锂业发布了半年度业绩预 ...

上半年金矿股大赚 金价狂飙，金矿股业绩大增。 截至7月17日，8家金矿上市公司披露了上半年业绩预告，且均实现预增。 据Wind数据统计，已披露业绩预告的8家公司净利润同比增幅均超过50%，其中3家净利润同比增幅超100%。 今年上半年，关税风险推动金价迭创新高，伦敦金一度站上3500美元/盎司，年内涨幅约26%。基于此，黄金股的"业绩牛"行情再度上演。 当前黄金在经历了投机炒作后，步入区间震荡阶段，二季度以来，金价整体处于盘整状态。金价上行预期分化下，这场由"金价红利"驱动的业绩盛宴还能延 续多久？ 上半年黄金股大赚，头部企业贡献近九成利润 据Wind统计，已披露业绩预告的8家金矿股，上半年净利润合计317.613亿元～328.063亿元。其中，头部企业的规模优势进一步放大。 中金黄金（600489.SH）、和山东黄金（600547.SH）则紧随其后，两家公司净利润额相当。 其中，中金黄金预计今年上半年净利润为26.14亿元～28.75亿元，同比增加50%～65%。山东黄金预计上半年净利润为25.5亿元～30.5亿元，同比增加84.3% ～120.5%。 截至目前，上述三家行业头部企业合计实现净利润至少283 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5][15]. Core Insights - The report anticipates significant earnings growth for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2025, with some companies expected to achieve over 50% year-on-year growth due to rising metal prices and increased production [4][5]. - The long-term trend for gold prices is expected to rise, driven by changes in monetary credit structures and low gold reserves in China, suggesting a sustained upward movement in gold prices [5]. - The copper market is projected to experience a long-term bullish cycle due to limited new supply and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [5]. - The steel industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as the government addresses low-price competition among enterprises [5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Key companies such as Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining are highlighted for their strong earnings growth potential in 2025H1, with year-on-year growth rates exceeding 50% for several firms [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the historical low valuation of the gold sector, suggesting potential for recovery and recommending stocks like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to limited new supply and increasing demand, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended for investment [5]. - The aluminum sector is projected to recover significantly in 2025, with companies like Yun Aluminum and China Hongqiao highlighted for their cost improvements and stable dividends [5]. Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is undergoing a transformation with government measures to optimize supply and demand, recommending companies like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel for their stable earnings [5][10]. Growth Cycle Investment - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, the valuation center for stable supply-demand sectors like new energy manufacturing is expected to rise, recommending companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [5].

Market Overview - The three major stock indices in China collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3516.83 points, up 0.37% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10873.62 points, up 1.43% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2269.33 points, up 1.76% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The electronic components sector led the gains, with companies like Mankun Technology hitting the daily limit of 20% increase, and Shengyi Electronics rising over 13% [4] - The CPO concept showed strong performance throughout the day, while the military equipment sector was also active, with companies like Zongheng Co. and Chenxi Aviation seeing significant increases [5][6] - Conversely, the precious metals sector experienced declines, with Shandong Gold dropping over 2% [7] Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into sectors such as electronics, computers, and communications, while there was a net outflow from public utilities, real estate, and coal sectors [8] - Specific stocks like Changshan Beiming and Runhe Software saw net inflows of 2 billion yuan and 925 million yuan, respectively [9] - On the outflow side, companies like China Electric Power and Sunshine Power faced sell-offs of 444 million yuan and 397 million yuan, respectively [10] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities noted that overseas liquidity remains volatile, with a short-term rebound in the US dollar, leading to limited domestic opportunities in July [12] - CITIC Securities highlighted that mid-year performance reports could drive market sentiment towards technology sectors [13] - Galaxy Securities mentioned that the large financial sector is entering a phase of rotation and adjustment [14]

山东黄金 20250716 摘要 受益于降息预期和金价上涨，A 股黄金上市公司迎来机遇，山东黄金作 为国内黄金资源量领先企业，其估值吸引力增强。 山东黄金产量稳步提升，2024 年产量 46 吨，同比增长 10.5%，2025 年目标不低于 50 吨，未来几年年均复合增速预计达 15%，为 A 股黄金 公司中增速领先者。 公司业绩兑现度逐步提升，一季度净利润约 10 亿元，二季度预计 15- 20 亿元，全年净利润预期上修至 70-80 亿元，对应 PE 约为十五六倍， 港股估值更具性价比。 山东黄金作为国企，受益于山东省内丰富资源，拥有 12 座年产一吨以 上矿山，总资源量超 2000 吨，仅次于紫金矿业，资源储备丰富。 公司通过收购银泰黄金控制权，新增山金国际优质资产，其克金营业成 本远低于山东黄金整体水平，并规划纳米比亚 Osimo 等项目，未来产能 有望翻倍。 山东黄金主要金矿包括焦家金矿、三山岛金矿、新城金矿和玲珑金矿， 其中三山岛金矿资源量最大，西岭金矿项目预计 2030 年前后投产，实 现年产能 13-14 吨。 公司海外项目贝拉德罗和卡蒂诺稳步推进，卡蒂诺金矿计划年产 8.9 吨， 预计 20 ...

证券代码：600547 证券简称：山东黄金 公告编号：2025-034 山东黄金矿业股份有限公司 2024年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 H 股股东的 2024 年度权益分派实施不适用本公告，具体可参阅公司在香港联合交易所有 限公司网站（www.hkexnews.hk）发布的相关公告。 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 6 月 11 日召开的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司 A 股股东。 3. 分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本 4,473,429,525.00 股（其中 A 股股本为 3,614,443,347 股；H 股股本为 858,986,178 股)为基数，每股派发现金红利0.148元（含税）， A 股每股现金红利0.148 ...

事件：公司公告2025 半年度业绩预告，符合预期。2025H1 实现归母净利润25.5-30.5 亿元（yoy+84.3- 120.5%），扣非净利润25.5-30.5 亿元（yoy+80.3-115.6%），主要系精益生产、金价上行；2025Q2 实现 归母净利润15.2-20.2 亿元（qoq+48.5-97.3%），扣非归母净利润15.2-20.2 亿元（qoq+47.6-96.1%）。 价格端：据wind，25H1 金价723 元/克（yoy+38.3%），25Q2 金价773 元/克（qoq+15.2%）。 多项在建工程，资源优势加速向经济优势转化。卡帝诺项目：24 年11 月试生产，达产后预计平均年产 金8.4 吨；焦家矿区整合项目：正在进行二期工程施工，达产后预计年产金18.854 吨；新城金矿整合项 目：达产后预计年产金7.77 吨；西岭金矿和三山岛金矿整合项目：已取得495 万吨/年整合采矿许可 证，达产后产金13.386 吨；甘肃金舜矿业：预计达成后年产黄金5-6 吨。 贵金属价格上行趋势不变：黄金本质为金融产品，具备收益性、安全性和流动性三重属性，2022 年后 在俄乌冲突催化下，美元储 ...