中原证券：晨会聚焦-20241021

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in China's GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% for the first three quarters of 2024, indicating a stable economic environment [5][7] - The central bank is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, which may enhance market liquidity and stimulate economic activity [5][7] - The report emphasizes the recovery of various sectors, including the real estate market, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing housing consumption and promoting upgrades [19][20] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,261.56, with a daily increase of 2.91%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.71% to 10,357.68 [3] - The A-share market is experiencing a slight correction, with growth sectors leading the way, particularly in software development, consumer electronics, and electronic components [10][11] Industry Analysis - The agricultural sector, particularly the livestock industry, is showing mixed performance, with pig prices declining by 6.26% month-on-month but increasing by 15.90% year-on-year [12] - The pet food export market is thriving, with a 30.68% increase in export volume in August 2024 compared to the previous year, indicating a growing demand for pet products [12] - The software industry is facing a slowdown, with revenue growth decreasing to 11.2% in the first eight months of 2024, down from 13.4% in 2023 [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies within the livestock and pet food sectors, as they are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and government support [12][13] - The software sector, particularly companies involved in domestic software development, is recommended for investment due to the ongoing trend of localization and increased demand for domestic products [15] - The report advises monitoring the real estate market closely, as recent policies are likely to support recovery and growth in related industries, including home improvement and consumer electronics [19][20]