有色金属行业周报：短期市场预期摇摆，长期向上预期不改

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry, with a focus on precious metals and industrial metals, while acknowledging short-term market fluctuations [2][9]. Core Insights - Precious Metals: The trend of monetary easing is emerging, with geopolitical tensions highlighting the safe-haven attributes of gold. The Federal Reserve's significant rate cut of 50 basis points in September, along with similar actions from other central banks, supports this outlook. The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold prices due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the upcoming U.S. elections [2][9]. - Industrial Metals: The report indicates a mixed short-term outlook but a positive long-term perspective. The copper market is characterized by tight supply-demand balance, with global copper inventories at 470,800 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22,740 tons. The report expects copper prices to rise as monetary easing stimulates investment and consumption [2][11][13]. - New Energy Metals: The lithium market is experiencing a significant correction, with production levels stable and no signs of production cuts. The report notes that while the market is currently oversupplied, long-term demand from the electric vehicle sector remains strong [2][14]. - Other Minor Metals: The rare earth market is showing weak sentiment, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors. However, potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics are anticipated in 2024 [2][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Precious Metals: The report emphasizes the safe-haven demand for gold amid geopolitical tensions and monetary easing, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices [2][9]. - Industrial Metals: The report highlights the tight supply-demand balance in the copper market, with expectations for price increases driven by monetary easing and strong demand from the renewable energy sector [2][11][13]. - New Energy Metals: The lithium market is facing a downturn, but the report suggests that long-term demand remains robust, particularly from the electric vehicle industry [2][14]. - Other Minor Metals: The rare earth market is currently weak, but potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics are expected in the future [2][15]. 2. Weekly Review - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.85%, outperforming the CSI 300 index. Notable stock performances included Guangzhi Technology with a 148.86% increase [2][20][17]. 3. Valuation - As of October 18, the non-ferrous metals industry has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.96, indicating relatively low valuations in the copper and aluminum sectors, with potential for upward adjustments [2][23]. 4. Major Events - The report notes significant macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve's rate cut of 50 basis points in September, which is expected to influence the non-ferrous metals market positively [2][29].