纺织与服装行业2024年三季报前瞻

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile and apparel industry is "Outperform the Market" [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite a sequential decline in retail performance for clothing and textile products in Q3 2024, there has been a month-on-month improvement in year-on-year growth rates since July. It suggests focusing on high-quality brand companies with stable performance, such as Bosideng and Tabo, which are expected to fully bottom out [2][3]. - On the manufacturing side, overseas exports accelerated in Q3 2024 compared to Q2, with China showing more resilience than Vietnam despite a decline in export growth rates for both countries. The report remains optimistic about manufacturers that can continuously increase their share among core customers and those with stable operational conditions [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector saw a 0.97% increase in the week of October 14-18, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.01 percentage points. The sector's current PE valuation is 16.71 times, below the historical average of 26.56 times [7][9]. Retail Data - In September 2024, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, a decline of 10.3 percentage points compared to the previous year. The overall retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods was 3.2%, down by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [20][22]. Export Situation - In September 2024, China's textile and apparel exports were approximately $24.778 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.41%. Cumulative exports for the year reached $222.904 billion, a decline of 1.53% year-on-year [20][22]. Key Companies - Bosideng is expected to see a revenue increase of 13-14% year-on-year in H1 FY25, with net profit growth exceeding 15%. Shenzhou International is also highlighted for its steady overseas expansion and resilience in the global supply chain [19][20]. - Adidas reported a 7% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2024, with a currency-neutral growth rate of 10%. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to around 10% [19][20].