PAB(000001) Haitong Securities·2024-10-21 00:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 12.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 0.2% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, and net profit decreased by 2.8% year-on-year. The overall asset quality has improved, with steady growth in corporate loans and a narrowing decline in net interest margin [3][4]. - The annualized return on assets (ROA) for Q3 2024 decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 0.96%, and the annualized return on equity (ROE) decreased by 1.24 percentage points to 12.67%. The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.33% [3][4]. - The overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 1 basis point to 1.06%. The corporate loan NPL ratio remained stable at 0.66%, while the personal loan NPL ratio increased by 1 basis point to 1.43%. The company is actively adjusting its customer and asset structure to enhance the management of non-performing loans [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 148.612 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.77% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to be 46.321 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.29% year-on-year. The EPS for 2024 is estimated at 2.22 yuan [5][17]. - The average ROE is projected to decline from 11.37% in 2023 to 10.42% in 2024, and the average ROA is expected to decrease from 0.80% in 2023 to 0.77% in 2024 [5][17]. Asset Quality - The company has strengthened its efforts in recovering non-performing assets, particularly in the real estate sector, contributing to the stability of overall asset quality. The provision coverage ratio is 251.19%, down by 13.1 percentage points [3][4]. - The overdue loan ratio increased by 15 basis points to 1.54%, while the attention loan ratio rose by 12 basis points to 1.97% [3][4]. Valuation - The reasonable value range for the company is estimated to be between 12.85 yuan and 13.22 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 5.80 to 5.96 times for 2024. The PB ratio for 2024 is estimated at 0.60 times [4][5].