海外市场周观察：特朗普交易卷土重来

Group 1 - The report highlights the resurgence of the "Trump trade," with a widening support gap between Trump and Harris, leading to a 0.52% increase in the US dollar index to 103.5 and a 1.94% rise in the Russell 2000 index, nearing its highest point since the end of 2021 [1][35] - Strong non-farm payroll data and persistent inflation, with September inflation year-on-year growth at 2.4%, have tempered expectations for interest rate cuts, raising the probability of a 50 basis point cut this year from 32.7% at the beginning of the month to 76.8% currently [1][35] - The report notes that the US retail sales for September increased by 0.4%, exceeding both the previous value of 0.1% and the forecast of 0.3%, indicating robust consumer growth [1][35] Group 2 - In the equity market, the Shenzhen Component Index saw the largest increase of 2.95%, while the Hang Seng Index experienced the largest decline of 2.11% [52][56] - The report indicates that the US public utilities sector had the highest increase of 3.36%, while the energy sector faced the largest decline of 2.53% [60] - The report also mentions that the COMEX silver had the highest increase of 6.84%, while NYMEX light crude oil recorded the largest decline of 8.15% [52][65] Group 3 - The report states that the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.3 basis points to 4.079% following the release of strong economic data, indicating a resilient economy and labor market [1][35] - It is noted that the market anticipates a 90.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, with the overall sentiment leaning towards cautious monetary policy adjustments [1][35][43]