农业周观点：9月社零增速加快，宠物消费属性占优

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [55]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the social retail sales data for September showed a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, which is an acceleration of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This improvement in macroeconomic policy is expected to boost consumption and enhance expectations, particularly in the agricultural sector, with a focus on the pet food segment [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential in the pet food market, with projected compound annual growth rates of 17% for pet staple food, 15% for nutritional products, and 25% for pet snacks by 2026 [8][15]. - The report suggests that the recent macroeconomic policies are likely to continue to support economic recovery and improve consumer expectations, particularly benefiting the agricultural sector [8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The performance of the Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector was +0.15% during the period from October 12 to October 18, ranking 26th out of 31 sectors [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.36%, while the CSI 300 and the Small and Medium 100 indices rose by 0.98% and 2.88%, respectively [1]. Key Market Trends - The report notes that the pet food sector has outperformed the overall agricultural sector, with a market capitalization-weighted average increase of 4.6 percentage points [8]. - The report identifies key players in the pet food market, including "Guai Bao Pet," "Zhong Chong Co.," and "Peidi Co." as potential investment opportunities [3][15]. Livestock Industry Insights - In September, the average price of live pigs was 18.31 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.4% month-on-month but an increase of 15.1% year-on-year [20]. - The report indicates that the sales volume of live pigs in September was 11.5475 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 4.56% [9]. Agricultural Commodity Outlook - The report discusses the global supply and demand for grains, noting adjustments in expected production for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans for the 2023/24 season [12][13]. - It highlights that global wheat supply is expected to increase by 1.9 million tons, while corn production is projected to decrease by 1.38 million tons [12][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pet food sector and livestock industry, such as "Muyu Co." and "Wens Foodstuff Group," which are expected to benefit from industry recovery and expansion [11][14].