海外经济与政策周报：共和党横扫的概率上升

Group 1: Middle East Developments - Israel softens its stance on attacking Iranian energy facilities, alleviating oil supply concerns[4] - International oil prices fell by 4.87% on October 14, reflecting reduced fears of Israeli actions against Iran[4] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in September reached $714.36 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.43%[6] - Core retail sales (excluding vehicles) rose by 0.52% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.21%[6] - U.S. industrial production fell by 0.3% in September, while the import price index decreased by 0.4%[10] Group 3: Political Landscape and Market Reactions - Trump's probability of winning the election has increased, with a 60.9% chance according to Polymarket, reflecting a 20% lead over Harris[4] - The likelihood of the Republican Party sweeping both the presidency and Congress is rising, which could positively impact the U.S. dollar and certain asset classes[5] Group 4: Global Asset Performance - Under the "Trump trade" logic, the U.S. dollar and precious metals strengthened, while U.S. stocks continued to rise during earnings season[1] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed divergent trends due to policy expectations and currency fluctuations[1]