银行行业银行投资观察：资产荒的逻辑正在终结

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking industry as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The logic of asset scarcity is coming to an end, with expectations of nominal economic growth significantly improving in the future [34][35] - The macroeconomic policy is shifting from a focus on investment to a balanced emphasis on both consumption and investment, which is crucial for stabilizing current economic growth [34][35] - The report highlights four important changes in future policies, including a focus on reasonable price recovery, a balanced approach to government and market relations, and further deepening of reform and opening up [34][35] Summary by Sections Current Observations - During the observation period (2024/10/14-2024/10/18), the banking sector's performance was 2.6%, underperforming the overall A-share market which rose by 3.1% [32] - The performance of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks varied, with changes of 1.59%, 1.86%, 5.10%, and 3.64% respectively [32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current policy mix will enhance nominal returns while reducing risk premiums, leading to a recovery in risk-free interest rates [35] Sector Performance - The average price of bank convertible bonds increased by 1.78%, underperforming the Zhongzheng convertible bonds by 1.13 percentage points [33] - The top three performing A-share banks were Chongqing Bank (+13.00%), Jiangsu Bank (+7.54%), and Changsha Bank (+7.50%) [32] Earnings Forecast Tracking - The report notes a slight decrease in the expected growth rates for net profit and revenue for A-share banks in 2024, with changes of -0.04 percentage points and -0.07 percentage points respectively [33]