食品饮料行业月度聚焦：如何看待调味品行业？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the seasoning industry, highlighting short-term improvements in sales performance in Q3 and expectations for a strong Q4 due to early inventory preparations for the 2025 Spring Festival. The report anticipates a recovery in demand driven by favorable policies and low base effects from Q4 2023 [2][16] - In the medium term, the report notes that leading companies are expected to increase market share as smaller competitors exit the market, and competition in the consumer segment intensifies. The report emphasizes the importance of structural upgrades in the long term, with expectations for price increases following economic recovery [2][25][28] - The report also indicates that the food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 3.7 percentage points in September, with a general uptrend across sub-sectors, particularly in snacks and dairy products [2][9] Summary by Sections 1. Short-term Perspective - Q3 is expected to show improved sales performance, with Q2 being the low point of the year. The report anticipates a recovery in inventory levels and demand due to seasonal effects and consumption incentives [2][16] - The report predicts that Q4 will benefit from early inventory preparations for the Spring Festival, with a low base from Q4 2023 supporting performance [16] 2. Medium-term Perspective - The report highlights that the exit of smaller companies from the market is accelerating, leading to increased market share for leading firms. The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, particularly in the consumer segment [2][25] - The report notes a significant decrease in the number of new entrants in the seasoning industry, indicating a consolidation trend [28] 3. Long-term Perspective - The report suggests that demand from the restaurant sector is likely to recover, while household consumption will benefit from upgraded products. Historical trends indicate that leading companies like Haidilao have successfully implemented price increases, which are expected to continue as the economy recovers [2][30] - The report draws parallels with Japan's deflationary period, suggesting that structural upgrades in the seasoning industry will support strong price performance [2][30] 4. Market Review - The food and beverage sector outperformed the market in September, with a notable increase in valuations, indicating that the sector is at historical low points in terms of PE and PB ratios [2][9] - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, with snacks and dairy showing particularly strong results [2][9] 5. Fundamental Tracking - The report tracks improvements in sales for mass-market products and a decrease in inventory levels for liquor. It notes that the performance of liquor companies was mixed during the holiday season, with some signs of recovery in demand [2][19] - The report highlights that raw material costs are showing mixed trends, with some prices continuing to rise while others are declining [2][19]