Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the US Robotaxi industry, consistent with the previous rating [2] Core Views - The US Robotaxi industry is advancing in a spiral, with companies like Waymo already operating commercially in certain regions. The industry is expected to accelerate further due to increased collaboration with Uber and the launch of Tesla's Cybercab [3] - Robotaxi development will enhance consumer awareness of autonomous driving, improve technology through mileage accumulation, and boost sales for automakers like Tesla while accelerating the growth of the domestic autonomous driving supply chain [4] - The report recommends investing in automakers and components suppliers with high adoption rates of advanced autonomous driving technologies, as well as Tesla's supply chain [4] Market Overview - The primary target markets for Robotaxi in the US are ride-hailing and traditional taxis, with a combined market size exceeding $700 billion in 2023 [4] - The US ride-hailing market was estimated at $453-519 billion in 2023, while the traditional taxi market was around $238 billion. The delivery and logistics markets were significantly larger, with $1979 billion for parcel delivery and $2875 billion for instant delivery [4][12] - Waymo and Cruise are leading players, with Waymo deploying around 700 vehicles and offering over 100,000 services weekly. Cruise faced setbacks due to accidents but is gradually resuming operations [4] Key Players and Developments - Waymo has partnered with FCA, Jaguar, Zeekr, and Hyundai to develop Robotaxi models and is expanding its services to Texas and Georgia by 2025 [4] - Tesla introduced the Cybercab, a futuristic Robotaxi with no steering wheel, expected to enter mass production by 2026-2027 [4][13] - Cruise, after facing regulatory challenges, has returned to traditional vehicle designs and plans to collaborate with Uber in 2025 [4][13] Regulatory and Operational Landscape - Robotaxi operations in the US are concentrated in specific regions, primarily in California, Arizona, and Texas, with California being the most advanced, allowing fee-based services without safety drivers [4][14] - As of October 2024, 32 companies have received permits for testing with safety drivers in California, while 6 have permits for driverless testing, and 3 have deployment permits [14] - Federal and state governments collaborate on autonomous vehicle regulations, with the federal government focusing on safety frameworks and state governments handling implementation [14][15]
美国无人驾驶出租车专题报告：美国的Robotaxi产业在螺旋式推进
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-21 01:39