商贸零售行业：24年Q3消费需求较弱，但政策刺激消费效果初显

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive/Maintain" [8] Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4] - Consumer demand is gradually rebounding, indicating resilience in the economy, with significant recovery potential in the future [3][4] - Essential consumption continues to show steady growth, while optional consumption exhibits varied performance [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The retail sales of consumer goods from January to September 2024 totaled 353,564 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [3] - The online retail sales of physical goods reached 90,721 billion yuan, growing by 7.9%, accounting for 25.7% of total retail sales [4] Consumption Trends - Essential goods such as grain, oil, and food saw year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 4.5%, and 2.2% respectively in the first half of 2024 [3] - Optional consumption categories like sports and entertainment goods and communication equipment showed strong growth rates of 9.7% and 10% respectively, while categories like automobiles and cosmetics experienced negative growth [3][4] Retail Formats - Online consumption growth outpaced offline, with convenience stores, specialty stores, and supermarkets showing year-on-year increases of 4.7%, 4.0%, and 2.4% respectively [4] - The performance of department stores and brand specialty stores declined by 3.3% and 1.7% respectively, indicating a shift towards high-cost performance consumption [4] Investment Strategy - In the context of overall weak consumer demand, focus on high-prosperity segments and companies with alpha performance within those segments [4] - The structural adjustment trend in the consumer market continues, with consumers becoming more rational in their spending behavior [4]