当前经济与政策思考：观察企稳回升的斜率

Economic Data - In September, industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous value of 4.5%[5] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 378,978 billion CNY in the first nine months, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.4%[5] - In September, social retail sales totaled 41,112 billion CNY, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.1%, down from 5.3% in the previous month, indicating an improvement in employment conditions[6] Investment and Consumption - Investment growth in September was 3.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous value[6] - Private fixed asset investment fell by 0.2% year-on-year in September, while non-private investment grew by 6.8%[5] - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 10.1% in the first nine months, but the decline narrowed compared to the previous year[5] High-Frequency Data - As of October 18, the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan was 91.05%, up from 88.71% previously, indicating a recovery in production[7] - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) was reported at 1,405.22 points as of October 18, continuing its downward trend[14] - The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was at 1,576 points as of October 20, reflecting a downward movement in shipping rates[20] Risks - Potential risks include domestic and overseas policy changes, unexpected economic fluctuations, and international trade friction[23]