化工行业周报：2024年10月第3周

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is still in a bottoming phase with few sub-industries showing an upward trend in fundamentals. High oil prices suggest focusing on high-dividend stocks like the "Big Three" oil companies and the long-term dividend potential of leading chemical enterprises. In terms of defensive allocation, attention should be given to the agricultural supply chain, which is more resilient during recession cycles. Historical data shows that food prices tend to decline less than oil prices during recession periods due to the inelastic demand for food. The increasing global instability has heightened the importance of food security, making the agricultural input supply chain resilient, particularly in upstream resources and compound fertilizers [5][11]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of October 18, Brent oil prices fell by 7.6% to $73.06 per barrel. OPEC and EIA have consecutively lowered global demand growth forecasts, and the easing of Middle Eastern tensions contributed to the price drop. However, a decrease in U.S. oil inventories led to a slight rebound in prices. As of October 11, U.S. commercial oil inventories stood at 420.5 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 2.2 million barrels [12][2]. Chemical Product Price Changes - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were liquid chlorine (up 578.6%), solid caustic soda (up 8.4%), and polyvinyl alcohol (up 7.1%). The top three price decreases were vitamin A (down 27.9%), natural gas (down 14.4%), and maleic anhydride (down 7.5%). The significant price increase in caustic soda is attributed to low inventory and maintenance leading to reduced production, alongside strong demand from the downstream aluminum oxide sector [3][13]. Price Spread Changes - The top three products with the largest price spread increases this week were acetic acid (acetylene method) spread (up 62.1%), acetylene method BDO spread (up 52.2%), and maleic anhydride BDO spread (up 48.6%). The largest decreases were seen in R410A spread (down 200.0%), styrene (down 61.0%), and hydrogen peroxide spread (down 33.3%). The recent rebound in BDO prices is influenced by transportation delays in Xinjiang and significant production cuts in other regions, while the cost of raw materials like maleic anhydride and acetylene has decreased [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Rongsheng Petrochemical: A leading private refining enterprise with significant upward earnings potential due to a joint investment project with Saudi Aramco [5][11]. - Huamao Technology: A leader in specialty polyethers, which has successfully navigated macroeconomic pressures and re-entered a growth phase [5][11]. - Jinhui Industrial: A leader in maltol and sucralose, with key products at the bottom of the cycle expected to see marginal improvements [5][11]. - Salt Lake Potash: A leading domestic potash fertilizer company [5][11].