有色金属行业：国内政策转向积极，小金属价格弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Domestic policies are becoming more proactive, and the price elasticity of minor metals is expected to improve, with a stronger recommendation for supply-rigid varieties such as rare earths, tin, antimony, and tungsten [1] - The demand for rare earths is gradually recovering, with manufacturers maintaining prices, indicating a bottoming out of prices. Multiple consumption scenarios such as robotics, new energy vehicles, and industrial energy-saving motors are expected to see explosive growth in the medium to long term [1] - The report highlights a tightening supply of antimony, with high consumption in the photovoltaic sector, leading to continued price increases [1] - Tin prices are expected to rise due to a lack of effective capital expenditure and a gradual recovery in semiconductor consumption, alongside high demand in the photovoltaic sector [1] Summary by Sections Market Review - The small metal prices have shown differentiation, with the main contract LC2411 down by 4.46%. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4.00%, while the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide remained stable [1][9] - The domestic price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide fell by 2.56%, and dysprosium oxide decreased by 2.79% [1][9] - The domestic antimony concentrate price decreased by 4.5%, and antimony ingot fell by 4.6% [1] - The lithium price has been fluctuating downwards, with the main contract LC2411 down to 70,700 CNY/ton [1][22] Industry Chain Prosperity - In the photovoltaic sector, domestic new installations in August 2024 were 16.46 GW, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 21.8% [11] - In the new energy vehicle sector, September saw production and sales of 1.307 million and 1.287 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 48.8% and 42.3% [13] - The total production of power and other batteries in September was 111.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 9.9% and a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [18] - The production of cathode materials in September was 306,100 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 9.35% [19] Lithium Market - The report indicates that the price of lithium carbonate is experiencing a downward trend, with the current price at 72,000 CNY/ton, down 4.00% [22] - The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 13,357 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.4% [22] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,855 tons, totaling 118,700 tons [22] Rare Earths - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued total control indicators for rare earth mining and smelting for 2024, leading to a slowdown in supply growth [1] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide fell to 419,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide was priced at 1,740,000 CNY/ton [1] Antimony - The price of antimony ingot was 145,400 CNY/ton, down 4.6%, with supply still tightening [4]