关税篇：如果共和党再度执政

Group 1: Tariff Policy Overview - If Trump is re-elected, tariffs may be higher and more systematic compared to his first term, particularly affecting certain countries and their major trading partners[1] - During Trump's first term, average tariffs on Chinese goods rose from approximately 3% to around 20% due to multiple rounds of tariffs imposed between 2018 and 2019[5] - Trump has proposed a general 10% tariff on all countries and up to 60% on specific nations, indicating a potential for broader tariff applications[1] Group 2: Economic Impact - A 10% tariff on Chinese exports could reduce China's export volume by 2.5% to 3.7% in the short term, with a long-term adjustment expected[24] - The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) estimates that a 10% tariff could lower China's GDP growth by 0.25 percentage points in 2025, stabilizing at 0.08 percentage points by 2028[2] - Mexico's GDP could see a decline of 0.09 percentage points in 2025, increasing to 0.65 percentage points by 2035 due to the spillover effects of U.S. tariffs[2] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - The trade friction has led to a significant shift in China's export structure, with increased exports to ASEAN, Mexico, and Canada compensating for reduced exports to the U.S.[18] - The average tariff on U.S. exports to China is currently around 19%, while China's tariffs on U.S. goods average about 21%[8] - The trade war has prompted Chinese companies to accelerate their global expansion, particularly in response to rising tariffs[18] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flow Effects - U.S. tariffs may strengthen the dollar and increase the risk premium on U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to a reconfiguration of global capital flows[38] - Historical data shows that the yuan's exchange rate has been affected by U.S. tariff announcements, with significant fluctuations observed during the 2018-2019 trade tensions[38] - Increased tariffs could lead to a rise in U.S. inflation, with estimates suggesting a potential increase of 0.6 percentage points in 2025 due to a 10% tariff[25]