宏观研究报告：交易波动率

Economic Indicators - The PPI year-on-year decline has expanded to -2.8% in September, compared to -1.8% previously, indicating ongoing liquidity constraints in the macro environment[4] - Industrial value-added growth for September increased to 5.4%, up from 4.5% in the previous month, while retail sales growth rose to 3.2% from 2.1%[4] - Fixed asset investment growth remained steady at 3.4%, with infrastructure investment growth accelerating to 9.26% from 7.87%[4] Real Estate Market - The real estate sector is moving towards a clearing phase, with October's year-on-year sales area growth for 30 major cities at -6.0%, a significant improvement from previous months' declines of -16.5%, -24.3%, and -32.4%[10] - The main issue in real estate has shifted to the loss of wealth effect expectations, making it uncertain whether policy adjustments will effectively boost sales[10] Financial Data Trends - Social financing stock growth year-on-year is at 8%, down by 0.1 percentage points, while RMB loan growth is at 7.8%, down by 0.3 percentage points[8] - M1 growth remains negative at -7.4%, slightly worse than the previous -7.3%[8] Investment Strategy - The bond market is expected to remain volatile, with a recommendation to focus on long-duration interest rate bonds as a favorable asset class[12] - In the equity market, attention should be paid to the alignment between risk appetite and corporate performance[12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected geopolitical conflicts, global economic downturns, and macro policy underperformance[16]