社服行业周报：关注政策推动下的业绩增量

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [6][31]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that China Duty Free Group's Q3 performance was under pressure, but policy support is expected to drive new performance growth. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 43.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.920 billion yuan, down 24.70% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for the main business increased by 1.09 percentage points to 32.57% [6]. - The report notes significant growth in sales at duty-free stores due to the expansion of visa-free countries, optimization of transit visa policies, and an increase in international flight volumes. For instance, sales at duty-free stores in Beijing airports increased by over 140% year-on-year, while sales in Shanghai airports grew by nearly 60% [6]. - The report also mentions that the Hainan offshore duty-free market has been under pressure, with total sales from January to July 2024 amounting to 20.133 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.34%. However, new policies effective from October 1, 2024, are expected to promote the healthy development of city duty-free stores [6]. - The report indicates that Zhongxin Tourism expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, projecting a profit of 115 million to 135 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 713.72% to 855.23%. The tourism industry is rapidly recovering, driven by the optimization of visa and entry policies [7][8]. - The report forecasts that domestic tourism will reach 4.32 trillion yuan in consumption, with 4.29 billion trips, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.1% and 16.8%, respectively, nearing pre-pandemic levels [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks various data points, including travel data, hotel occupancy rates, and restaurant statistics, indicating a recovery in the tourism sector [11][14][17][20][22]. - In August 2024, the average hotel occupancy rate in Shanghai was 68.80%, recovering to 101.18% of the 2019 level [17]. - Hainan's passenger throughput in August 2024 was 5.6968 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.80%, and up 27.34% compared to 2019 [20]. - The number of dining establishments in Beijing in September 2024 was 140,860, a month-on-month decrease of 3.62% but a year-on-year increase of 9.50% [22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the social services sector, including China Duty Free Group, Huazhu Group, and others, highlighting their market capitalization and year-on-year profit growth [26].