医药生物：第十批国家目录出台，医药生物Q4环境改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is Neutral [2][30]. Core Insights - As of the end of Q3 2024, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry valuation remains at a near ten-year low, with a strong positive correlation between the industry's prosperity and national fiscal policies. The implementation of the national "package" incremental policies is expected to lead to valuation recovery in Q4 [2][25]. - Key segments to focus on include innovative drugs, blood products, and medical device equipment [2][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry has seen an overall decline of 2.5% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which has increased by 27.3% [9]. - Among sub-sectors, raw materials (+26.9%), chemical pharmaceuticals (+9.8%), and pharmaceutical distribution (+5.5%) showed the highest gains, while other medical services (-39.8%), offline pharmacies (-33.9%), and diagnostic services (-24.8%) faced the largest declines [11]. 2. Key Events and Policy Commentary - On October 16, 2024, the Shanxi Provincial Drug and Medical Device Centralized Procurement Center announced the 10th batch of national centralized procurement, including 62 varieties and 263 specifications, with a total terminal sales scale exceeding 55 billion [18]. - The procurement list includes a significant number of injection products, indicating a focus on essential medications [18]. 3. Industry Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on innovative drugs, blood products, and medical device equipment due to the current market conditions and policy directions [25][27]. - For innovative drugs, the industry is facing challenges such as crowded pipelines and uncertainties from medical reform policies, leading to a historical low in valuations. The report suggests monitoring large pharmaceutical companies with strong cash flow and R&D capabilities, such as Hengrui Medicine, BeiGene, and Kelun Pharmaceutical [25][27]. - In the blood products sector, the report highlights the supply constraints due to the reliance on human plasma and suggests focusing on leading companies like TianTan Biological and Boya Bio-Pharmaceuticals [27]. - The medical device sector is expected to recover due to recent fiscal policies, with a recommendation to focus on domestic leading companies like Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and Aohua Endoscopy [27].