9月社零环比提速，促消费政策显效

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector [1] Core Insights - In September, China's retail sales showed a month-on-month improvement, with total retail sales reaching 4.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a month-on-month growth of 1.1 percentage points [1][2] - The recovery in consumption is driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending, particularly in categories such as home appliances, communication equipment, and automobiles [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains in a weak recovery phase, with expectations for continued policy support in employment stabilization, income growth, and consumer subsidies [1][2] Summary by Category Consumer Performance - Retail sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, surpassing the growth rate of dining revenue for the first time this year [1][2] - Online retail sales of physical goods grew approximately 6.4% year-on-year in September, with a steady increase in the share of online sales [2][3] Essential Consumption - Essential consumption remains stable, with retail sales of staple foods, traditional Chinese and Western medicines, and daily necessities increasing by 11.1%, 5.4%, and 3.0% year-on-year, respectively [6] - Beverage and tobacco sales slightly declined by 0.7% year-on-year [6] Discretionary Consumption - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in home appliances and communication equipment, with year-on-year increases of 20.5% and 12.3%, respectively [6] - The furniture category showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, reversing a downward trend from the previous two months [6] Key Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with strong competitive positions and structural opportunities in consumer spending, including Stone Technology, Bull Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Hisense Home Appliances, and Anta Sports, all receiving "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings [19][20]