政府投融资观察双周报第21期：特殊再融资债重启发行，基建投资继续改善

Group 1: Financing Overview - In the past two weeks, the net issuance of bonds by the broad fiscal sector was 567.4 billion CNY, a decrease of 699.5 billion CNY year-on-year and 379.4 billion CNY month-on-month[3] - As of the end of September, the remaining quotas for new government bonds and local special bonds were 0.9 trillion CNY and 0.3 trillion CNY, respectively[3] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds totaled 884 billion CNY from Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Jiangsu provinces in the past two weeks[3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Social Financing - The central bank's balance sheet expanded by 1.62 trillion CNY in September, significantly exceeding the average increase of 941 billion CNY during the same period from 2019 to 2023[3] - New social financing in September was 3.76 trillion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 372.2 billion CNY, with government bonds and bill financing contributing 40% to the new social financing[3] - The short-term bill rates have shown a seasonal decline, with the 3-month bill rate dropping to 0.3% and the 6-month rate to approximately 0.95%[3] Group 3: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment growth accelerated in September, with a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, up from 6.2% in August[4] - High-frequency indicators related to infrastructure, such as road freight volume and cement production rates, showed seasonal recovery, indicating a marginal acceleration in project implementation[4] Group 4: Local Government Financing and Debt - The debt repayment capacity of local government financing platforms has come under pressure, with total liabilities growing faster than total assets, leading to a slight increase in the debt-to-asset ratio to 61.6%[5] - The interest coverage ratio for local government financing platforms decreased to 2.68 times, indicating a decline in their ability to cover interest payments[5]