Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1] Core Views - JD Group is expected to see a revenue recovery driven by the "trade-in" policy, with a projected total revenue of 261.3 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - The report highlights that JD's retail revenue is anticipated to grow by 5.2% year-on-year to 223.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, benefiting from recent government stimulus policies and a recovery in consumer spending [4] - The Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 is projected to be 11.8 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin improvement to 4.5% [2] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for JD Group is forecasted to reach 1,139.57 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5% [6] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 36.5 billion yuan, indicating a 51% growth compared to the previous year [6] - The report projects a diluted EPS of 11.69 yuan for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17% [6][7] Retail Performance - JD Retail's revenue is expected to recover, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% to 223.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, driven by the trade-in policy and a healthy growth in daily necessities [4] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) for JD Retail is projected to increase by 6% year-on-year [4] - The report notes that the 1P (first-party) revenue from electronic products is expected to grow by 2.2% to 121.9 billion yuan, while daily necessities are projected to grow by 8.4% to 82.4 billion yuan [4] Market Performance - JD Group has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with a 12-month performance of 58.8% compared to the index's 17.3% [3] - The current market capitalization of JD Group is approximately 464.97 billion HKD [3]
京东集团-SW：2024Q3业绩前瞻：以旧换新推动收入增长回暖，利润稳健释放