医药行业周报：医保谈判进入关键阶段，关注长期增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [2]. Core Insights - The medical insurance negotiation is entering a critical phase, with a focus on long-term incremental growth in domestic demand. The negotiation success rate for 2024 is expected to remain above 80% due to increased participation from companies [3]. - There is an expectation for fiscal support to gradually resolve the accounts receivable issues faced by pharmaceutical companies, with government policies aimed at addressing these challenges [4]. - The potential for overseas expansion is highlighted as a key driver for valuation expansion in the pharmaceutical sector, with significant growth in exports to RCEP countries and ASEAN [5]. - The respiratory diagnostic market presents opportunities for domestic companies to enter the global market, with several products recently receiving regulatory approvals [6]. - The prospects for domestic GLP-1 drugs are promising, with a growing market for obesity and diabetes treatments [7]. - Supply constraints in raw materials, particularly due to BASF's production delays, are impacting the pharmaceutical sector, but the raw material drug industry remains robust [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Medical Insurance Negotiation - The adjustment of the medical insurance drug catalog is progressing, with a pre-negotiation phase completed and a formal negotiation expected soon. The market value of drugs included in the insurance is increasing, and the number of drugs applying for inclusion is rising [3]. 2. Fiscal Support for Pharmaceutical Companies - Recent government initiatives aim to address the accounts receivable issues faced by pharmaceutical companies, particularly those related to public medical institutions. Policies are being implemented to ensure timely payments and support for local governments [4]. 3. Overseas Market Expansion - The report notes significant growth in exports of medical devices and pharmaceuticals, particularly to RCEP countries and ASEAN, indicating a shift towards international markets for growth [5]. 4. Respiratory Diagnostic Market - Domestic companies are making strides in the global respiratory diagnostic market, with several products receiving FDA approval, indicating a growing opportunity for market penetration [6]. 5. GLP-1 Drug Market - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic GLP-1 drugs to capture market share in obesity and diabetes treatment, with several companies actively pursuing international collaborations [7]. 6. Raw Material Supply Constraints - The report discusses the impact of BASF's production delays on the supply of raw materials, particularly vitamins, while noting that the raw material drug sector remains in a favorable position [9]. 7. Stock Recommendations - Specific stock recommendations include Shanghai Yizhong, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and Meihua Medical, among others, based on their potential in the evolving market landscape [10].