Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the real estate industry, suggesting that the market is still under significant downward pressure despite recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing it [1] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a continued decline in both second-hand and new housing prices, with September showing a 0.93% month-on-month drop in second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, and a 0.71% drop in new housing prices [2][3] - Sales data for September showed a slight month-on-month improvement due to seasonal factors, but year-on-year declines remain significant, with a 32.9% drop in average daily transactions in major cities [2][3] - The investment side of the market is also under pressure, with a notable decline in funding sources for real estate development, including domestic loans and personal mortgage loans, all showing double-digit year-on-year declines [10][13] - Recent policy announcements from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aim to boost market confidence, including measures to relax purchase restrictions and lower mortgage rates, which are expected to positively impact sales and development activities [20][21] Summary by Sections Price and Sales Performance - In September, second-hand housing prices in 70 cities fell by 0.93% month-on-month, with first-tier cities experiencing an intensified downward trend [3] - New housing prices also followed a similar downward trajectory, with a 0.71% month-on-month decline across 70 cities [5][6] - Sales figures for September showed a total sales area of 96.82 million square meters and a sales amount of 915.65 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of 11.0% and 16.3% respectively [8] Investment Performance - The funding sources for real estate development saw a significant year-on-year decline of 20.0% in the first nine months, with September's funding amounting to 89.66 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.4% drop [10][13] - Construction activity also faced challenges, with new construction, ongoing construction, and completed construction areas all showing substantial year-on-year declines [15] Policy Developments - On October 17, a press conference announced a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including the cancellation of certain purchase restrictions and reductions in mortgage rates [20] - The new policies are expected to lead to a 14% increase in annual sales area if implemented within a year, alongside a significant increase in loan approvals for development projects [21]
2024年9月房地产行业运行情况报告：政策持续注入信心 推动楼市止跌回稳
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2024-10-21 05:31