策略研究周度报告：等待政策效果显现，重视三季报业绩超预期

Core Insights - The report maintains the view of a fluctuating market around a new equilibrium, with limited short-term policy changes expected and marginal changes in fundamentals [1][5][13] - The third quarter GDP growth rate was 4.6%, slightly below the second quarter, indicating increased pressure for stable growth [1][5] - Focus on sectors with potential for exceeding expectations in Q3 reports, supported by favorable economic conditions or policy catalysts, particularly in growth sectors like electronics, communications, and military industry [1][5][17] Market View - The market is expected to continue fluctuating around a new equilibrium, with a focus on the impact of the 1 million housing renovation project on economic growth and the upcoming US elections [1][5] - Economic growth pressure is primarily due to insufficient consumer and real estate demand, with export risks accumulating [1][5][13] Economic Data Insights - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached approximately 4.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a month-on-month recovery of 1.1 percentage points [5][15] - Fixed asset investment growth remained at 3.4% year-on-year in September, with manufacturing investment at 9.2% and real estate investment down by 10.1% [7][9] Industry Configuration - Continued focus on sectors expected to exceed Q3 performance, supported by favorable economic conditions or potential policy catalysts [1][17] - The report highlights two main lines for investment: growth sectors with expected strong Q3 performance, including electronics and communications, and consumer goods with potential for recovery, such as home appliances and automobiles [1][5][17] Sector Performance - The TMT sector, particularly computing and media, has shown significant gains, driven by market sentiment rather than substantial catalysts [17][19] - The electronics and communications sectors are expected to benefit from actual growth in AI demand, with strong performance indicators [19][20]