HPI(SH:600011) Changjiang Securities·2024-10-21 06:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng International is "Buy" and is maintained [5][6]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's electricity generation continues to show steady growth, with operational performance expected to remain stable despite high base effects from the previous year [5][6][7]. - In the third quarter, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 130.562 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.43%. For the first three quarters of 2024, the cumulative electricity generation reached 341.240 billion kWh, up 1.14% year-on-year [5][6]. - The average settlement price for electricity generation in the first three quarters was 496.27 yuan per MWh, a decrease of 2.63% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Electricity Generation Performance - The report highlights that the company's thermal power generation remained stable, with a total of 107.704 billion kWh generated in the third quarter, a slight decrease of 0.29% year-on-year. Meanwhile, gas-fired generation increased by 8.69% year-on-year [7]. - The company added 1.4675 million kW of wind power and 3.7531 million kW of solar power capacity in the first three quarters, leading to significant growth in renewable energy generation [6][7]. Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.79 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 1.01 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.92, 7.73, and 7.01 [6][13]. - The report anticipates that the company's overall operational performance will remain stable, despite potential pressures from high base effects and the electricity market [5][6][7]. Cost and Pricing Analysis - The average electricity price for the third quarter is estimated at 492.35 yuan per MWh, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. The report notes that the increase in low-cost renewable energy generation may stabilize thermal power prices [7]. - The report also mentions that coal prices have shown a non-seasonal risk, with a projected increase of approximately 13.58 yuan per ton compared to 2023, although the overall cost impact on the company is expected to be limited due to long-term coal contracts [7].