2024年9月经济数据点评：经济特征有哪些新变化

Economic Overview - The economic characteristics have shown new changes since September 2024, indicating a short-term turning point after August's economic bottom[1] - The actual GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.6%, aligning with expectations, while the nominal GDP growth rate was 4%[1] - The GDP deflator index decreased by 0.56% year-on-year in Q3, marking six consecutive quarters of negative growth[1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Internal demand is recovering, with infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate sales showing varying degrees of year-on-year growth[1] - The cumulative year-on-year contribution of net exports to GDP reached 1.14 percentage points in the first three quarters, indicating reliance on external demand[1] Sector Performance - The service sector's GDP growth rate rebounded, with financial and real estate sectors showing improvement, while industrial production remained stable[1] - In September, industrial production growth increased from 4.5% in August to 5.4%, while service production growth rose from 4.6% to 5.1%[19] Policy Impact - Following the "9·24" policy, there has been an increase in real estate and financial market activity, with transaction volumes rising[1] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to advance a 100 billion yuan central budget investment plan for 2025, which could directly boost Q4 nominal GDP growth by 0.6%[14] Consumer Behavior - Social retail sales in September grew by 3.2% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 2.3%[30] - The household appliance sector saw a significant increase in sales, with a 4.4% year-on-year growth attributed to the "trade-in" policy[30]