周报：三季度经济走势平稳，政策密集出台下四季度经济动能回升在望

Economic Performance - Q3 GDP growth was +4.6% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while Q2 growth was +4.5%[1] - The construction and real estate sectors lagged behind overall GDP growth, with respective growth rates of +3.0% and -1.9% in Q3[1] - Fixed asset investment in September showed a year-on-year increase of +3.4%, with infrastructure investment rising by +17.5%[4] Consumer Trends - Retail sales in September increased by +3.2% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of +2.3%[1] - The consumer spending tendency, measured by per capita consumption expenditure to disposable income, was 66.7%, indicating recovery but still below pre-pandemic levels[1] Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment grew by +9.7% in September, contributing to a cumulative growth of +9.2% for the first nine months of the year[4] - Real estate investment continued to be a major drag on economic growth, with a decline of -10.1% year-on-year for the first nine months[4] Industrial Production - Industrial output increased by +5.4% year-on-year in September, reflecting a recovery trend[4] - Among 17 sub-industries, 13 showed an increase in value-added growth compared to August, with notable improvements in pharmaceutical manufacturing and black metal smelting[6] Policy Outlook - A series of growth-stabilizing policies were introduced at the end of September, with expectations for economic momentum to improve in Q4[1] - The government plans to support local debt resolution and fiscal expansion, indicating a proactive stance to bolster infrastructure investment[4]