有色金属：力拓并购Arcadium点评：上修25-26年碳酸锂供给

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of Arcadium Lithium by Rio Tinto is expected to significantly enhance global lithium supply forecasts for 2025-2026, with Arcadium's projects set to accelerate production due to Rio Tinto's financial backing [2][25] - Rio Tinto's entry at the bottom of the cycle reflects strong long-term confidence in the lithium industry, anticipating lithium demand to rise to 3-3.5 million tons LCE by 2030, leading to a potential supply shortage [2][25] - The current market environment presents an opportunity for Chinese lithium companies to acquire quality assets, as the competitive landscape intensifies with major players like Rio Tinto entering the market [2][25] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - On October 9, 2024, Rio Tinto announced a cash acquisition of Arcadium Lithium at $5.85 per share, a 90% premium over Arcadium's closing price on October 4, 2024, valuing Arcadium at approximately $6.7 billion [1][7] - The transaction is expected to close by mid-2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals [1][7] Financial and Operational Insights - Rio Tinto's strong cash flow, with over $9 billion in cash reserves, positions it well to support Arcadium's expansion plans, which are projected to require $1.87 billion in capital expenditures from 2025 to 2028 [8][18] - Arcadium's EBITDA margin is robust at 40%, with plans to double its production capacity to 170,000 tons LCE by 2028 [14][16] Market Implications - The acquisition is likely to position Rio Tinto as the third-largest lithium producer globally, enhancing its competitive edge in the lithium market [20][22] - The entry of major mining companies into the lithium sector during a downturn indicates a strategic move to secure valuable assets and capitalize on future demand growth [2][25]