药明康德：地缘政治扰动有限，业绩企稳复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (药明康德) and raises the target price to 67.72 RMB, reflecting reduced uncertainty from the biosecurity bill and growth in backlog orders [2][4][11]. Core Insights - The impact of the biosecurity bill is expected to be limited, with the company's U.S. operations likely to remain stable despite potential legislative changes [2][13]. - WuXi AppTec has a significant capacity advantage over its peers in India and the U.S. in the chemical drug CDMO sector, making it unlikely for foreign competitors to take over market share in the near term [2][10]. - The company's business is poised for recovery, driven by strong growth in its peptide business and an increase in backlog orders, which grew by 22.4% compared to the end of 2023 [2][12][21]. Financial Performance - The projected revenue growth for WuXi AppTec is -4.4% in 2024E, followed by +10.9% in 2025E and +13.2% in 2026E [2][3]. - Adjusted non-IFRS net profit is expected to decline by 8.4% in 2024E, then increase by 11.5% in 2025E and 14.4% in 2026E [2][3]. Market Position - WuXi AppTec's revenue for its chemical segment in 2023 was 4.14 billion USD, significantly higher than the combined revenue of 10 comparable Indian companies, which totaled 3.15 billion USD [21][22]. - The company has a robust R&D and capital expenditure strategy, with its R&D spending far exceeding that of its Indian counterparts, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and capacity expansion [21][22][24]. Growth Drivers - The peptide business has emerged as a key growth engine, with increasing demand for innovative drugs in metabolic disease areas [2][12]. - The anticipated decline in interest rates by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost global early-stage pharmaceutical financing, further enhancing WuXi AppTec's growth prospects [2][12].