新能源汽车2024年9月全球销量点评：短中期需求共振，板块迎估值抬升
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-21 08:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The current new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with a seasonal peak in demand and stronger-than-expected energy storage driving improvements in lithium battery demand. The mid-term demand is expected to be sustained by the implementation of the 2025 European carbon emission plan and potential "rush orders" for energy storage in the U.S. [3][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic NEV Sales - In September 2024, China's NEV sales reached 1.287 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42.3% and a month-on-month increase of 17.0%, with a penetration rate of 45.8% [4][7]. - Cumulative NEV sales from January to September 2024 reached 8.32 million units, up 32.5% year-on-year [4][7]. - The sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles grew significantly, with production and sales increasing by 80.1% and 84.2% respectively in September [8][9]. 2. Power Battery Installation Growth - In September, China's power battery installation reached 54.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.6% and a month-on-month increase of 15.5% [14][15]. - The cumulative installation from January to September 2024 was 346.6 GWh, up 35.6% year-on-year [14]. - CATL maintained a market share of 44.0% in September, with an installation volume of 23.99 GWh [16][18]. 3. Overseas NEV Market - The European NEV market showed some recovery, with sales in September reaching 222,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [20]. - In contrast, the U.S. NEV market experienced a decline, with sales of 123,000 units in September, down 6.5% year-on-year [28]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading lithium battery companies with strong performance, recommending stocks such as CATL, BYD, and Yiwei Lithium Energy [3][30]. - It also highlights opportunities in the consumer battery sector, particularly benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics and the AI innovation cycle [30].