Economic Update - Economic growth in Maldives picked up in early 2024, with real GDP growing by 9.8% year-on-year in Q1, driven by a 9.3% growth in the tourism sector [20] - Tourist arrivals increased by 10.5% year-on-year as of end-August 2024, with Chinese arrivals leading the market at 14.6% of total visitors [20] - Headline inflation declined to an average of 0.5% in H1 2024, but food inflation remained elevated at 6.7% year-on-year [21] - The fiscal deficit narrowed to MVR 677 million (0.6% of GDP) in Q1 2024, with revenue increasing by 9.1% year-on-year, driven by tourism-related tax collections [22] - Expenditure cuts led to a build-up of arrears, with delays in payments to contractors, fishermen, and private hospitals [23] - The current account deficit (CAD) is expected to narrow to 16% of GDP in 2024, supported by robust growth in travel sector receipts [24] - Foreign exchange reserves declined to critically low levels, covering only 1 month of imports as of August 2024 [25] - Public debt rose to 115.7% of GDP in Q1 2024, with domestic debt increasing to 68.4% of GDP due to tighter global financial conditions [27] Outlook and Risks - Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 4.7% in 2024, supported by the completion of the new terminal at Velana International Airport [28] - Inflation is expected to rise significantly, reaching 7.8% in 2025, driven by the removal of blanket subsidies [29] - The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 6.1% of GDP by 2026, with public debt declining to 111.4% of GDP [30] - External debt servicing needs are expected to spike to $1.07 billion in 2026, including bullet payments for the $500 million Sukuk [30] - Downside risks include elevated external and fiscal vulnerabilities, limited buffers, and potential delays in fiscal reforms [31] Policy Priorities for Climate and Development - Sea-level rise (SLR) is a major climate concern, with projections suggesting a potential rise of 0.5 to 0.9 meters by 2100, which could damage up to 3.3% of total assets by 2050 [34] - Coral reefs are under threat, with almost all coral cover potentially lost if global temperatures exceed 2°C, impacting tourism and fisheries [35] - Severe climate-induced impacts are expected to escalate by 2050, with ocean heating potentially causing the collapse of coral reefs and fish stocks [36] - The tourism sector requires accelerated climate adaptation efforts, with over 90% of resorts grappling with beach erosion and infrastructure damage [37] - Fisheries revenue could decline by almost 100% by the end of the century under a high-emission scenario, necessitating alternative livelihood opportunities [38] - Financing requirements for climate adaptation to SLR and flooding alone range between $2 billion and $4 billion [40]
马尔代夫发展更新，2024年10月：在动荡时期寻求稳定（英）
Shi Jie Yin Hang·2024-10-21 08:10