煤炭行业周报：淡季震荡，关注冬季需求提振

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing seasonal fluctuations in demand, with a focus on potential demand increases during the winter season. The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic policies and seasonal weather patterns on coal prices and inventory levels [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - Thermal Coal: Demand is seasonally declining, with port prices showing weak fluctuations. As of October 18, the spot reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 856 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -1.38%. The total coal inventory at northern ports is 22.66 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [1][7]. - Metallurgical Coal: Demand is improving due to macroeconomic policies, with prices remaining high. The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is 1910 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -4.98%. The total inventory of coking coal at independent coking plants is 7.9745 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.19% [1][13]. - Coking and Steel Industry Chain: Coking rates are low, but recent price increases for coke have been observed. The average price for metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 2010 CNY/ton, a weekly increase of 2.55% [1][23]. - Coal Transportation: Coastal shipping is limited due to adverse weather, leading to an increase in coal transportation prices. The coastal coal transportation index is 692.08 points, a weekly change of +6.98% [2][28]. 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has shown a mixed performance, with the CITIC coal index closing at 3737.19 points, a weekly change of -0.97%. The report suggests that supply increases are limited while demand expectations remain, indicating that winter coal prices may have limited downside potential [2][3]. 3. Industry News Summary - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, which may enhance investment risk appetite in the coal sector. It suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks and low price-to-book ratio companies within the industry [2][3].