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2024年第四季度大类资产配置：A股迎来阶段性行情，配置权益资产正当时
Caixin Securities·2024-10-21 08:33

Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 showed significant gains over the past 12 months, with the CSI 300 outperforming at 8.50% [1] - In Q3 2024, the aggressive portfolio achieved the highest return of 7.54%, though underperforming the CSI 300 by 13.85% [2] - The portfolio's risk control metrics showed annualized volatility ranging from 2.07% to 10.98% across different risk profiles [2] - Equity assets contributed significantly to portfolio returns, with the CSI 300 ETF delivering a 21.39% return [17] - Bond assets underperformed, with the 5-year Treasury ETF returning only 0.69% [17] Global Economic Analysis - The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 50bps in September 2024, exceeding market expectations [23] - US employment data showed resilience, with September non-farm payrolls adding 254,000 jobs, well above expectations [26] - Eurozone economic growth slowed to 0.2% in Q2 2024, with manufacturing PMI hitting a 9-month low of 45% [36] - Japan's economy maintained strong growth at 2.5% in Q1 2024, with CPI stabilizing above the 2% target [39] China's Economic Outlook - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.4% in the first 8 months of 2024, with private investment turning negative [42] - Infrastructure investment grew 7.9% year-to-date, though growth momentum weakened due to extreme weather and project shortages [46] - Manufacturing investment remained robust at 9.1% growth, led by high-tech sectors growing at 9.6% [47] - Real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with property sales declining at a slower pace of 18% year-to-date [50] Sector and Industry Performance - The Hang Seng Index outperformed global markets with a 19.3% gain in Q3 2024 [9] - Gold prices surged to record highs, with London spot gold gaining 13.2% in Q3 [9] - Crude oil prices fell sharply by 15.6% in Q3 due to geopolitical tensions and demand concerns [9] - High-tech manufacturing maintained strong growth momentum, with PMI reaching 53.0% in September [48]