低收入国家的财政脆弱性：演变、驱动因素和政策（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Low-income countries (LICs) require significant resources to address development challenges, needing an additional annual investment equivalent to 8 percent of GDP through 2030 to meet critical goals [21][22] - The average government debt-to-GDP ratio in LICs rose to 72 percent in 2023, marking a significant increase and indicating widespread debt accumulation across these economies [23] - Fiscal deficits in LICs have expanded from 1.2 percent of GDP in 2019 to 2.4 percent in 2023, driven by rising debt and interest payments [23][24] Summary by Sections I. Introduction - The pandemic and subsequent global shocks have exacerbated development challenges in LICs, with about 40 percent of the population living in extreme poverty as of 2024 [41][42] II. Evolution of Fiscal Positions in LICs - Government revenues in LICs averaged 18 percent of GDP from 2011 to 2019, significantly lower than other emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) [47] - The average fiscal deficit in LICs is estimated at 2.4 percent of GDP in 2023, reflecting a deterioration in fiscal positions [42] III. Fiscal Vulnerability to Shocks - LICs are particularly vulnerable to global recessions and domestic conflicts, which can lead to significant fiscal imbalances and increased government debt [26][27] - The impact of global recessions on LICs includes an average deterioration of fiscal balances by 1.7 percentage points of GDP [26] IV. Fiscal Policy Options in LICs - Strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and improving spending efficiency are critical for enhancing fiscal positions in LICs [36][37] - The report emphasizes the need for international support to help LICs stabilize their fiscal positions and improve policy management [39] V. Conclusion - The report highlights the urgent need for well-designed national policy interventions to improve fiscal positions in LICs, including better tax administration and enhanced public spending efficiency [36][37]