煤炭月度供需数据点评：9月供给回升，制造业投资延续高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal sector, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [23]. Core Insights - The coal supply has shown a slight increase in the first nine months of 2024, with a notable recovery in September. The cumulative output of raw coal reached 3.476 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.60% [5][6]. - Manufacturing investment continues to grow, but overall downstream demand remains under pressure. Fixed asset investment increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment up by 9.20% [6][9]. - Coal imports have continued to grow, with a cumulative import volume of 38.913 million tons in the first nine months, reflecting an 11.90% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate has slowed in September [12][13]. - The prices of thermal coal have stabilized, while coking coal prices have adjusted. The average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal in September was 862 yuan per ton, down 6.83% year-on-year but up 1.94% month-on-month [16][20]. Supply Side Summary - In the first nine months of 2024, raw coal supply slightly increased, with a significant recovery in September. The output for September alone was 414 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.40% [5][6]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for raw coal is under pressure, with cumulative growth rates for various sectors showing declines. For instance, the cumulative growth rate for thermal power was 1.90%, down 3.90 percentage points year-on-year [9][6]. Import Summary - Coal imports have shown a consistent upward trend, with a total of 38.913 million tons imported in the first nine months of 2024, which is an 11.90% increase compared to the previous year. However, the growth rate in September has slowed [12][13]. Price and Profit Performance Summary - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have remained stable, while coking coal prices have seen some adjustments. The average price of coking coal at Tianjin Port was 1550 yuan per ton in September, down 23.46% year-on-year [16][20]. Commentary and Investment Recommendations - The data for September aligns with expectations, and there is potential for improvement in demand. The report suggests focusing on stable high-dividend stocks and low price-to-book ratio targets, as well as elastic coking coal stocks that may benefit from fiscal and real estate policies [20].