煤炭行业周报（2024年第41期）：煤价延续小幅震荡，9月火电同比增长8.9%，板块价值与弹性兼备

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - Recent market dynamics indicate a slight decline in thermal coal prices, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price index dropping by 8 RMB/ton to 857 RMB/ton. Factors contributing to this include sufficient inventory levels and a seasonal decrease in demand for thermal coal as temperatures cool. However, macroeconomic expectations are improving, and industrial demand is expected to grow steadily, particularly with the upcoming winter storage demand [3][4][54] - The coal industry is projected to maintain stability or experience slight increases in prices due to increased winter storage demand and limited supply growth. The average dividend yield for the industry is over 5%, highlighting significant valuation and dividend advantages [4][54] Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decline, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price index at 857 RMB/ton, down 8 RMB/ton from the previous week. Domestic port and production prices are also stabilizing as the market approaches the weekend. The decline is attributed to ample inventory and a seasonal dip in thermal coal demand [3][12][50] - The focus on domestic supply and demand shows a slight increase in coal production and imports in September, with thermal power generation rising by 8.9% year-on-year. However, non-electric demand remains weak [58][59] Industry Outlook - The coal price is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to rising winter storage demand and limited supply growth. The industry has shown resilience in profitability despite price declines in previous quarters, with a significant average dividend yield [4][54] - Key companies to watch include those with stable earnings and high dividends, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as those with lower valuations and long-term growth potential like Yancoal and China Coal Energy [4][58]