LPR下调25BP点评（2024.10）：LPR下调还有多少空间？

Group 1: LPR Adjustment Impact - The recent LPR adjustment of 25 basis points (bps) brings the 1Y and 5Y LPR rates to 3.1% and 3.6% respectively, marking a total reduction of 60 bps for the year, the largest since the LPR reform began[1] - This adjustment is expected to alleviate the downward pressure on real estate demand and reduce potential non-performing loan rates in existing mortgages[1] - The LPR cut is anticipated to support local governments in accelerating debt restructuring, thereby mitigating financial systemic risks[1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The central bank's recent actions reflect a policy intent to enhance interest rate transmission efficiency, with the LPR cut being between the policy rate (20 bps) and MLF rate (30 bps)[1] - The current interest rate curve shows a temporary high in the 1-year rate, indicating a need for further adjustments to flatten the yield curve[1] - Future LPR cuts may be constrained by external factors, including the potential for a stronger US dollar and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, with an expected further reduction of 30-40 bps in 2025[1]