2024年9月社零数据跟踪报告：9月社零总额同比+3.2%，增速环比回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][38]. Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to August 2024, and a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 [1][2][12]. - Retail sales of goods and catering income grew by 3.3% and 3.1% year-on-year, respectively [1][12]. - The online retail sales from January to September 2024 totaled 108,928 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, accounting for 30.8% of total retail sales [1][31]. Summary by Sections Overall - The total retail sales in September 2024 were 41,112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, showing a recovery in growth rate compared to August [1][12]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year in September [12]. Breakdown - Essential consumer goods showed steady growth, with significant increases in categories such as grain and oil (+11.1%), daily necessities (+3.0%), and traditional Chinese and Western medicines (+5.4%) [1][15][19]. - In contrast, several discretionary categories experienced negative growth, including beverages (-0.7%), tobacco and alcohol (-0.7%), and cosmetics (-4.5%) [1][19][21]. Online Sales - Online retail sales for the first nine months of 2024 reached 108,928 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6%, while physical goods online sales were 90,721 billion yuan, growing by 7.9% [1][31][33]. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on resilient sectors such as food and beverages, which are essential consumer goods, and sectors benefiting from service consumption policies, such as dining, tourism, and hotels [1][35].