食品饮料行业周报：消费复苏预期持续，重视三季报业绩表现

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook on policy expectations and emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery in the food and beverage sector [5][6] - The industry shows strong resilience, supported by policy stimuli that help restore consumer confidence [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Last week, the food and beverage sector declined by 3.18%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.16 percentage points, ranking 31st among 31 Shenwan first-level sectors [5][11] - Among sub-sectors, only snacks increased by 3.37%, while others experienced declines [5][11] - Top five gainers included Zhu Laoliu, Gaisifu, Quanyuan Spring, Lianhua Health, and Weilang Co., with respective increases of 10.10%, 9.31%, 9.06%, 8.79%, and 8.59% [5][11] - The top five decliners were Haitian Flavoring, Qianwei Yangchun, New Dairy, *ST Xifa, and Zhongju Gaoxin, with respective declines of 6.37%, 5.67%, 4.97%, 4.89%, and 4.63% [5][11] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth showed improvement, with September retail sales increasing by 3.2% year-on-year, and a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [5] - Dining revenue grew by 3.1% year-on-year, while tobacco and alcohol categories saw declines [5] Key Segments - Baijiu: Focus on the performance of liquor companies in Q3 reports. Notable updates include Wuliangye's cash dividend ratio of 60%, up by about 5 percentage points year-on-year, and Luzhou Laojiao's strategy to deepen its market share in the Sichuan-Chongqing region [5][6] - Beer: The report anticipates improved beer sales in Q3 due to seasonal demand and cost reductions in raw materials, with imported barley prices down by 17% year-on-year [6] - Snacks: Jin Zai Food forecasts a net profit of 208-223 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.47%-67.75% [6][33] - Catering Supply Chain: Benefiting from policy stimuli, the catering supply chain is expected to recover, with a focus on companies with strong operational resilience and low valuations [6] - Dairy Products: The trend towards health and diversification is driving demand for low-temperature dairy products, with a recommendation to focus on companies enhancing product structures and DTC channel penetration [6] Investment Recommendations - For the baijiu sector, focus on high-end liquor and regional leaders such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [6] - In the beer sector, recommend high-end brands like Qingdao Beer [6] - In the snack sector, suggest companies with strong growth logic like Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Food [6]