稀土永磁行业月度跟踪：9月产业链价格环比回升明显，钕铁硼供给仍维持高位

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [2][5] Core Insights - In September, the rare earth permanent magnet materials industry saw a monthly increase of 10.69%, but underperformed the benchmark (CSI 300) by 0.82 percentage points, with the monthly valuation rising to a historical percentile of 60.4% [3][5] - The supply of neodymium-iron-boron remained high, with significant month-on-month price increases observed in September, while year-on-year declines showed signs of narrowing [3][5] - The demand side is mixed, with expectations for increased air conditioning production, but a decline in elevator demand and a steady recovery in industrial robotics [4][5] Summary by Sections Upstream - In September, the average price of domestic mixed rare earth carbonate rose by 18.39% month-on-month to 26,400 CNY/ton, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 24.14% [3] - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased by 9.46% month-on-month to 422,700 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 19.14% [3] - Heavy rare earth prices showed mixed trends, with dysprosium and terbium prices experiencing slight increases month-on-month, but year-on-year declines expanded [3] Downstream - External demand showed slight growth, with air conditioning demand expectations revised upward, while elevator demand continued to decline [4] - In August, the export of neodymium-iron-boron products increased by 2.69% month-on-month and 24.29% year-on-year, reflecting a significant rebound due to a low base effect [4] - The industrial robotics sector saw a cumulative year-on-year production increase of 9.9% from January to August 2024, indicating a recovery trend [4] Investment Recommendations - The current supply growth of neodymium-iron-boron is high, leading to potential pressure on mid-term supply-demand balance and industry profitability [5] - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the rare earth permanent magnet materials industry, suggesting that while short-term market sentiment has improved, long-term performance will depend on capacity adjustments and profit recovery [5]